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Maverick Charts - Macro & More - May 2023 Edition #7

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Maverick Charts

Maverick Charts - Macro & More - May 2023 Edition #7

AI, Interest Rates & the S&P 500, US Debt Ceiling, European Wages & Food, Supply Chain Pressures, Brexit a mistake? OECD GDP Projections, Global Tech & Security

Maverick Equity Research
Jun 7, 2023
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Maverick Charts - Macro & More - May 2023 Edition #7

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Dear all,

here we go with Top 15 Macro & More charts from around the world + 5 Bonus!

In case you did not subscribe yet for delivery straight to your inbox, it’s just 1-click. And the same goes to share this around with whom might be interested as well. Enjoy!

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1. November 1998 Forbes AI cover/headline - ‘Artificial Intelligence Gets Real’

  • is this time truly different? A big step though imo overhype train came to town

  • “History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes?”

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Source: Maverick Equity Research
  1. US Interest Rate cuts are pushed out of 2023 ... Fed Funds Futures tells us:

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Source: Maverick Equity Research
  1. In 2022 we started the fastest interest rates hiking cycle in decades, yet the mighty S&P 500 aka 'The Market' is now +1.56% … we went from 0% to 5%+ rates and equities are all good, let that sink in!

Image upload
Source: Maverick Equity Research
  1. Zooming out - Interest Rates & the S&P 500 via:

  • 40 years of US interest rates with red bars recession periods

  • S&P 500 quarterly returns

  • S&P 500 drawdowns

N.B. with the fastest hiking cycle in the most recent decades, the drawdown was in 2022, yet 2023 no problemo my friend given that we are +12.5% in 2023

Image
Source: Maverick Equity Research
  1. Visualising FED tightening cycles via interest rates rates increase by month

  • 1994 cycle was very steep, but 2022-2023 even more

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Source: FactSet
  1. Charting the Rise of America’s Debt Ceiling:

  • Can now put a floor in place and problem solved ?

  • No circus theatre next time ... we can skip that part ... ;)

Image
Source: Visual Capitalist, Maverick Equity Research
  1. US debt ceiling & Market uncertainty: US overcooked it as always and this time like no other compared to previous episodes, UK did not care this time at all …

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Source: Maverick Equity Research
  1. Was Brexit a mistake? It seems they realised that it was …

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Source: YouGov & FT
  1. Power to the European employees: a sharp acceleration in negotiated wages … hedge inflation at least partly …

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Source: Pictet
  1. Europeans are buying less food but paying more for it …

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Source: FT
  1. Greece GDP growth vs Euro area: an interesting chart from Goldman Sachs ahead of the Greek election of May 21st:

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Source: @NicoGladia
  1. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index eases to lowest level on record! Let's Make Inflation Low Again, right?

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Source: Bloomberg, Maverick Equity Research
  1. Monetary policy should remain restrictive until inflation falls durably (i.e. anchoring inflations properly)

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Source: OECD
  1. OECD raises GDP growth projections:

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Source: OECD
  1. What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months?

  • Soft landing!

  • Source: May 2023 BofA Global Fund Manager Survey aka 'institutional investors'

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Bonus charts

  1. Global Tech & Security via The World & Undersea Cables

  • The ocean floor is crisscrossed by 1.5 million km of undersea cables = modern life isn’t possible without them …

  • 552 cables carry 95% of global data and communications including everything from $10T in daily financial transactions to your crypto and local restaurant POS payment … 😉

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Source: TeleGeography, Maverick Equity Research
  1. Visualizing the World’s Largest Steel-Producing Countries

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Source: Visual Capitalist, Maverick Equity Research
  1. Market needs Elon to go doge coin twitter mode it seems ;)): Dogecoin dropped -46.5% since November 1, 2022 while Bitcoin has gained 34% since then ...

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Source: Bloomberg
  1. “Hey ChatGPT, are you going to disrupt the labor market for education?”

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Source: Indeed, Maverick Equity Research
  1. Survey on ChatGPT in the Workplace - Deutsche Bank asked 1,150 employees on ChatGPT usage:

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Source: Bloomberg, Maverick Equity Research

Should you have found this cherry-picking interesting & valuable, just subscribe & share this around with people that might also be interested! Twitter post can be found here. Thank you!

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Have a great day!

Mav

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Maverick Charts - Macro & More - May 2023 Edition #7

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Maverick Charts - Macro & More - May 2023 Edition #7

maverickequityresearch.substack.com
Finance & Econ
Jun 16

Thanks Mav!

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