At the outset Kudos for great research and different approach. I just subscribed and plan to read the previous posts.
On this special edition thesis - disconnect in Cost of Capital - and the attribution ie NDX pricing in Fed rate cuts seems spot on.
I think 🤔 we might get additional insights by:
1) back test if this phenom was experienced in previous rate cycles since 1980s ?
2. Depending on insights from 1 above - role of the recent acquisition of SVB book by GS. At what point would GS be ready to flip for profits
3. if this truly is a gap of historical proportions - is there a fundamental shift in Tech valuations especially with AI mania, upheaval in semiconductor supply due to geo political shocks
I personally think NDX is overdone but additional confirmation always helps.
Thank you, appreciate! More will come ... max 1 / week .... cannot do more due to time & data sometimes ... but when I do, should be useful ... will never cover 'breaking news' & 'story of the day' & 'headlines' ... but research ;)
1) great point, thank you ... will try and check that out ...
2) hmm interesting ... not much to add for now
3) imo not a gap of historical proportions given 12% ... if it was 20-30% than massive indeed, but sure, relative words & numbers here ;) ... AI mania is quite crazy ... check my NVDA special ... it gained since just October 2022 about 63% of Berkshire BRK-B ... and the latter has been compounding for 6-7 decades by 2 legends ... NVDA great busienss, but all priced in for perfection here in terms of growth and market share ... no margin of safety ... and that's not value investing ... Taiwas is an issue indeed ... given the interdependency with TSMC ...
May 15, 2023·edited May 15, 2023Liked by Maverick Equity Research
Super interesting … I am not a trader (exceptions) doing a lot of tactical stuff but this is super dope … very educational and I understand more about the markets … thanks!
welcome ... education is always very good ... it connects the dots with way other parts ... until each finds his or her way ... and right fit approach ... cheers!
Great write up, Maverick
Thank you, appreciate! Have a great day!
At the outset Kudos for great research and different approach. I just subscribed and plan to read the previous posts.
On this special edition thesis - disconnect in Cost of Capital - and the attribution ie NDX pricing in Fed rate cuts seems spot on.
I think 🤔 we might get additional insights by:
1) back test if this phenom was experienced in previous rate cycles since 1980s ?
2. Depending on insights from 1 above - role of the recent acquisition of SVB book by GS. At what point would GS be ready to flip for profits
3. if this truly is a gap of historical proportions - is there a fundamental shift in Tech valuations especially with AI mania, upheaval in semiconductor supply due to geo political shocks
I personally think NDX is overdone but additional confirmation always helps.
Thank you 🙏 again
3.
Thank you, appreciate! More will come ... max 1 / week .... cannot do more due to time & data sometimes ... but when I do, should be useful ... will never cover 'breaking news' & 'story of the day' & 'headlines' ... but research ;)
1) great point, thank you ... will try and check that out ...
2) hmm interesting ... not much to add for now
3) imo not a gap of historical proportions given 12% ... if it was 20-30% than massive indeed, but sure, relative words & numbers here ;) ... AI mania is quite crazy ... check my NVDA special ... it gained since just October 2022 about 63% of Berkshire BRK-B ... and the latter has been compounding for 6-7 decades by 2 legends ... NVDA great busienss, but all priced in for perfection here in terms of growth and market share ... no margin of safety ... and that's not value investing ... Taiwas is an issue indeed ... given the interdependency with TSMC ...
Welcome, glad I could help.
Cheers!
Super interesting … I am not a trader (exceptions) doing a lot of tactical stuff but this is super dope … very educational and I understand more about the markets … thanks!
welcome ... education is always very good ... it connects the dots with way other parts ... until each finds his or her way ... and right fit approach ... cheers!
Great rationale … thank you!
great coverage, thx!