Great summary. People are usually not afraid of known unknowns(Recession), but they would have so much concern on unknown unknowns(Pandemic/War). If everyone predicts that there is hard landing or recession would coming soon, it could lead people try best to avoid the recession(move cash to safety asset such as T-bills or MMF) because the recession event is Known Unknown, we know the fact/hard data but have no idea about the precise time to when the recession would happen.(Oedipus effect)
Welcome back Maverick!!! Hope you had a good holiday season. And needless to say, your posts never dissapoint. Looking forward to reading more of your work this year.
Solid research. Thanks!
Great collection of data. Thank you for distilling the crème de la crème of macro data for the week.
Great summary. People are usually not afraid of known unknowns(Recession), but they would have so much concern on unknown unknowns(Pandemic/War). If everyone predicts that there is hard landing or recession would coming soon, it could lead people try best to avoid the recession(move cash to safety asset such as T-bills or MMF) because the recession event is Known Unknown, we know the fact/hard data but have no idea about the precise time to when the recession would happen.(Oedipus effect)
Good summary on the Labour Market!
Great Charts And Summary. Thank You Always
Beautiful place!! Regards
great macro coverage! thx!
Great analysis, I do think that we need to understand the impact of labour shortage and inflation, its the 1970s in reverse, but the result is the same. Inflation! https://open.substack.com/pub/danielduffy/p/why-with-full-employment-do-we-all?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=25jsk8
We also need to understand the impact, Treasury bills are having on collateral>liquidity and the volcity of liquidity in the financial system.
https://open.substack.com/pub/danielduffy/p/the-sinister-use-of-the-tga-to-protect?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=25jsk8
Each of with are inflationary, which the market markers are not talking about.
Welcome back Maverick!!! Hope you had a good holiday season. And needless to say, your posts never dissapoint. Looking forward to reading more of your work this year.
Great summary! Thanks again 👍
Great take, looking forward that you cover this frequently, thx!
thanks!