✍️ Maverick Charts of the Week #4: S&P 500, Buffett & Berkshire, U.S. GDP, Unemployment & Federal Interest Payments, Gold
10 sleek Maverick charts that say 10,000 words!
Dear all,
10 charts of the week this time and many with both insight + food for thought! Enjoy!
U.S. Federal Interest Payments = an ugly topic, but some good news just came in (not joking as you might be surprised to see good news on that topic)
👉 $1.11085 trillion in Q1 2025: it is a decline since Q4 & the first decline since 2020
👉 as a % of GDP: 3.71% now, a decline from the 3.8% from Q3 2024
P.S. in case you missed my special report that was dedicated to the U.S. public debt:
✍️ Maverick Special Report #6: U.S. Public Debt Reduction = Hard but Feasible
U.S. GDP tracking:
👉 real GDP growth at 2.2% (up from 1.1% on May 1) via Atlanta Fed's latest GDPNow
P.S. way more on the U.S. economy via my dedicated extensive research - 4th edition is work in progress and coming with major improvements - in case you missed the 3rd edition (from 2024), there you go:
✍️ The State of the US Economy in 75 Charts, Edition #3
U.S. Unemployment Rate:
👉 unchanged at 4.2% and below the 36-month moving average of 3.8%
Warren Buffett announced on Saturday that he will be stepping down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO with Canadian Greg Abel to replace him
👉 Berkshire stock (BRKB) down -5.12% on Monday
👉 I heard many opinions across the years: stock to drop 15-25% when that moment will come, some said it will do like the market : my base case scenario was that this was expected hence priced in given he is 94, hence no material drop - I was wrong given 5% down, but being wrong is good sometimes as it means one can buy cheaper …
P.S. in case you missed my takes on on Berkshire, there you go:
✍️ Maverick Special Report #4: Warren Buffett's Cash Pile ... & More!
✍️ Maverick Charts of the Week #1: Who is Outperforming Big Time in 2025?
S&P 500 rose for 9 consecutive days (until yesterday):
👉 after a rollercoaster April with massive volatility who would have thought that?
👉 made it for the longest winning streak since 2004!
S&P 500 Earnings - Actuals:
👉 earnings growth +15.4% (not bad at all ... )
👉 revenue growth +4.7% (not bad either ...)
S&P 500 Earnings - Estimates:
👉 down only 3% in 2025 which is surprising given that April had the Tariff day saga
‘So what is the takeaway Mav?’
👉 the only rationale I have is that analysts do not believe POTUS will/can follow through with the trade war threats
👉 U.S. backed up and started to negotiate quite fast … as I foresaw and tweeted about on April 5th (just 3 days after Liberation Tariff day)
S&P 500 Net Profit Margin (NPM):
👉 above 12% for the 4th straight quarter
👉 also analysts see NPMs improving through the rest of 2025: the estimated NPMs for Q2 2025 through Q4 2025 are 12.5%, 12.9%, and 13.0% respectively
Way more on the S&P 500 via my distinct S&P 500 reports which will get further improved, and this time quite materially with some special metrics you rarely see.
You can check the previous edition:
✍️ The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Sentiment & More - (5th edition)
Gold Seasonality Performance (based on Futures) since 1974
👉 the current path/performance is on the very top end of the average/usual path
P.S. in case you missed my Special Situation trading Gold from March which also this year for 11 years in a row had a 100% win rate (I’ll make a dedicated update on it soon):
✍️ Maverick Special Situation #6: 🪙 Gold Special Seasonality Pattern
'Buying Gold' google trend search percentile rank (right) & Gold (left)
👉 Parabolic moves ... need to cool-off a bit sooner or later ... at least for a while
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Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!
Mav 👋 🤝
